Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.163842 2.292758 2.428675 2.583222 2.754788 2.940233 3.156953
2025-06-22 1.949852 2.123479 2.315287 2.544845 2.814772 3.125537 3.515591
2025-06-29 1.806098 2.002024 2.225191 2.501706 2.840254 3.248444 3.789659
2025-07-06 1.689503 1.897236 2.139284 2.447196 2.836252 3.323085 3.998820
2025-07-13 1.636941 1.861575 2.129219 2.478803 2.935028 3.528731 4.395127
2025-07-20 1.597090 1.836869 2.128364 2.518453 3.043256 3.752584 4.841068
2025-07-27 1.563802 1.817035 2.130583 2.559744 3.153999 3.987408 5.332940
2025-08-03 1.511091 1.769232 2.093302 2.544564 3.183596 4.106560 5.660388
2025-08-10 1.462926 1.724469 2.056879 2.527004 3.206585 4.215518 5.984040
2025-08-17 1.415597 1.678400 2.015979 2.499929 3.212338 4.296574 6.269506
2025-08-24 1.371855 1.635034 1.976350 2.471729 3.213286 4.368422 6.547358
2025-08-31 1.342459 1.609251 1.958956 2.473582 3.258764 4.515196 6.988861
2025-09-07 1.321545 1.594458 1.956504 2.497761 3.341965 4.736415 7.629125
2025-09-14 1.281499 1.552413 1.914528 2.461333 3.326350 4.785190 7.920228
2025-09-21 1.242650 1.510646 1.871223 2.420502 3.300386 4.812231 8.168325
2025-09-28 1.202676 1.466100 1.822367 2.368875 3.253141 4.795636 8.312899
2025-10-05 1.190725 1.459613 1.827087 2.398815 3.343120 5.043071 9.149506
2025-10-12 1.181760 1.456788 1.836669 2.436355 3.448330 5.332398 10.185659
2025-10-19 1.173650 1.454751 1.847087 2.475427 3.558911 5.647244 11.413434
2025-10-26 1.150827 1.431170 1.824917 2.461066 3.572701 5.762422 12.089328
2025-11-02 1.128530 1.407701 1.802079 2.444448 3.581014 5.866588 12.770986
2025-11-09 1.104852 1.381631 1.774518 2.418820 3.570817 5.928648 13.335493
2025-11-16 1.081952 1.356118 1.747024 2.392116 3.556839 5.980665 13.888768